Miami football predictions: Who is the Canes toughest opponent? Ranking the schedule

It’s finally game week. The second season of the Mario Cristobal era opens Friday night with a visit from the other Miami — the RedHawks from the MAC.

Yesterday, I offered my best guess at the depth chart and made some statistical projections for the 2023 season. Today, it’s time to make some game predictions.

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I took the under on Miami’s regular-season win total of 7.5 set by oddsmakers. Hopefully, you aren’t offended by that considering the Hurricanes have averaged a 7-5 record since they joined the ACC in 2004.

Though Cristobal has infused the roster with more talent, most of it is young and the schedule is just as tough as the one Manny Diaz faced in his last season in 2021 when he went 7-5.

I’ve listed the opponents from easiest to hardest:

12. Bethune-Cookman (Sept. 14): Coming back five days after facing Texas A&M for a Thursday night kickoff isn’t ideal, especially if you’re dealing with injuries. But Miami beat the Wildcats last year 70-13 and should be able to cruise with backups playing a bunch of snaps. Hurricanes 59, Wildcats 7

See you Friday night at 4:55 pm for the first Hurricane walk of the season! 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/bWIeU6qX7s

— Miami Hurricanes (@MiamiHurricanes) August 29, 2023

11. At Temple (Sept. 23): The Hurricanes lost their last game against a team from the American Athletic Conference — a 34-23 setback at Cincinnati in 2015. The Owls, Miami’s former Big East rival, are led by sophomore E.J. Warner, the son of two-time NFL MVP Kurt Warner. They went 3-9 last season and haven’t won more than three games since 2019. Canes 44, Owls 20

10. Virginia (Oct. 28): Last year’s 14-12 quadruple overtime thriller in Charlottesville won by Miami on a Jake Garcia dive into the end zone was the second-ugliest memory seared into my mind from last year’s 5-7 campaign. Tony Elliott is starting a Monmouth transfer at quarterback and plays at North Carolina the week before coming to Miami. UM will be coming off the Clemson game. Canes 38, Cavaliers 14

9. Miami (Ohio) (Sept. 1): The RedHawks went 6-7 (4-0 with QB Brett Gabbert healthy) and played in a bowl game for the third time in four years. Nine starters are back on a defense that produced 22 turnovers. I’m expecting it to be a game for three quarters before Miami puts an end to a five-game home losing skid. Canes 37, RedHawks 22

8. Georgia Tech (Oct. 7): Texas A&M transfer Haynes King didn’t play in the Aggies’ win over Miami last year, but Miami will have an extra week to prepare for his coming off a bye if he’s still the starter by the Yellow Jackets’ sixth game of the season. Miami has won the last two meetings — both tight games (Jacurri Brown’s TD pass to Colbie Young made it 21-7 last year with 7:52 remaining). I expect something similar here. Canes 34, Yellow Jackets 20

7. At Boston College (Nov. 24): Miami has lost three of its last four meetings with the Eagles, who are coming off a 3-9 season in which they had an abysmal time protecting their quarterback (46 sacks allowed). Playing the day after Thanksgiving after a long season can be tough to get up for if you don’t have something to play for. BC could be playing for coach Jeff Hafley’s job. Canes 30, Eagles 24

6. Louisville (Nov. 18): New coach Jeff Brohm brought in 25 transfers, including former Cal (and Purdue) quarterback Jack Plummer, to restock a team that went 8-5 last season and is viewed as a dark horse to win the conference. Jamari Thrash will be a nightmare for Miami to cover, but this smells like a high-scoring affair — Louisville must replace 32 of the team’s 50 sacks from last season. Canes 45, Cardinals 36

5. At NC State (Nov. 4): The last two meetings with the Wolfpack, in 2020 and 2021, were won by Miami by a combined four points. Dave Doeren, who has won at least eight games in five of his last six seasons, is counting on quarterback Brennan Armstrong and offensive coordinator Robert Anae to rekindle their magic from their days at Virginia. Coin flip game, and I’m taking NC State to win at home. Wolfpack 33, Canes 30

4. At North Carolina (Oct. 14): Heisman candidate Drake Maye struggled some against Miami last season (309 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) and has a new offensive coordinator coming off a 9-5 season. But Mack Brown is 4-0 against Miami, and he’s got some talented running backs. Tar Heels 34, Canes 31

3. Texas A&M (Sept. 9): Here on the list is where the Hurricanes start to look overmatched at certain positions. Laugh at Jimbo Fisher for last year’s 5-7 season, but the Aggies are uber-talented on defense and have a five-star at quarterback, Conner Weigman. Aggies 34, Canes 20

2. Clemson (Oct. 21): How do you get recruits fired up about the direction of the program? Don’t lose 58-0 to Clemson like the last time the Tigers came to town. Coming off a bye, quarterback Cade Klubnik and new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley should have worked out their offensive kinks. Tigers 41, Canes 24

1. At Florida State (Nov. 11): Coming off a 45-3 loss to the Seminoles at home last year, Miami simply has to try to keep things respectable so it isn’t hurt in recruiting. Zaquan Patterson, a top-100 recruit at safety and recent Miami commitment, and five-star receiver Jojo Trader, Miami’s top recruit in the 2024 cycle, are players FSU would love to flip. Seminoles 38, Canes 23

So, I’ve got Miami scoring 34.5 points per game — an 11-point jump from a year ago — and giving up 26.7 points a game, which is roughly the same as last year. That in my mind equates to two to three more wins tops.

(Photo of Tyler Van Dyke: Jerome Miron / USA Today)

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