Bills second-half predictions: Von Millers sack count, Dalton Kincaid makes history

With a 5-4 record in an extremely competitive AFC, the Buffalo Bills are in unfamiliar territory on the outside looking in of the playoffs past the halfway mark of the year. Expect a more pressure-packed end to the regular season than usual for coach Sean McDermott’s Bills.

What may happen over the final eight games? Here are some predictions for the second half of the 2023 campaign, along with some thoughts on the Bills’ upcoming game against the Denver Broncos.

GO DEEPER

Best- and worst-case scenarios for each remaining Buffalo Bills game

Josh Allen and the offense turn it around to get closer to their ceiling potential

The Bills offense has been inconsistent in 2023. With only the Raiders and Dolphins games as good offensive outings, it’s led to questions about how far the team can go this year. As long as the Bills commit to doing what their offense is best at, the offense still showed signs of potential against the Bengals that could lead to better results in the future. The Bills seem at their best when they are a pass-heavy attack on first downs, allowing Allen to put strain on a defense with his ability to scramble, occasionally going up-tempo and sprinkling in occasional running plays on second and third downs when not expected. Allen still looks like a plus-passer on film, the offensive line has protected him very well this year, Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid are an excellent one-two punch and the Bills have good supporting pieces along the roster.

Advertisement

The overall offensive environment seems like it should be conducive to positive drives finishing with more points than they’ve seen over the last five games, but for multiple reasons over that span, it hasn’t happened. Logic and rationality has usually won out with the Bills since Sean McDermott took over as head coach, and I expect the franchise gets closer to their ceiling in the coming weeks based on what they’re best at and finally breaking through.

Second-year running back James Cook went from being the locked-in starter with Latavius Murray and Damien Harris being only bit players, to now having the 33-year-old starting games and replacing Cook down the stretch. To put it mildly, the way the Bills have used Cook as he has hit some rough patches is somewhat confusing. After taking 32 of the first 40 snaps against the Bengals, Cook watched from the sidelines for the remaining 18 plays, not even taking off his overcoat as Murray took every snap in the fourth quarter. It isn’t as though Murray has been all that effective as a runner, either, but the Bills love him and he may have a substantial role against the Broncos this week. His best attribute this season has been the reliability on third downs to stay in and pass protect for Allen.

The door is wide open for Leonard Fournette once he gets a good handle on the Bills offense. The Bills know he is a productive player and can help them as both a physical runner and pass catcher, perhaps blending the two better than either Cook or Murray for the rest of the season. It may not be this week against the Broncos, but it may not be much longer after that for Fournette to start working in with the offense on game days. And if he has some success, and proves himself as a pass protector on third downs, the job could be wide open for Fournette to be the top guy down the stretch.

Dalton Kincaid becomes the first tight end in Bills history with 750 receiving yards in a single season

The lack of any tight end reaching the single-season 750-yard mark in franchise history remains one of the more hard-to-believe stats for the Bills. However, Dalton Kincaid seems poised to break that one day in his Bills career, and remarkably, he doesn’t have that far to go to do it in his rookie season. Despite Dawson Knox having a huge role before his long-term injury, Kincaid still has managed to post 339 yards in his first nine games. With eight games to go, Kincaid needs to average 51.4 yards per game.

Advertisement

It’s a somewhat daunting figure, but Kincaid proved himself to be a consistent and trusted piece of the Josh Allen passing attack. The Bills will have to see if the Diggs back injury listed on Friday’s team-issued report will cost the receiver any time. But as long as Diggs is healthy and available, teams will not have the luxury of paying Kincaid a great deal of attention within a game plan, which makes the 51.4 yards per game more than doable. Much will depend on when Knox returns and what Kincaid’s role will be once he does, but it would be a surprise if the Bills turned away from Kincaid being a critical piece of their passing offense.

Von Miller does not eclipse six sacks in the 2023 regular season

The Bills have taken it slow with Von Miller since his Week 5 return from a torn ACL, averaging 21 snaps per game over his first five games. Over that time, Miller’s overall impact on the game has been minimal as they’ve used him primarily on obvious passing downs but without getting much heat on the opposing quarterback. Miller has gotten close a couple of times, but has yet to have an overwhelming pass rush win reminiscent of the player he was before the injury. Miller even spoke to the fact this week that this torn ACL, and the recovery from it, is different than the one he suffered at the end of the 2013 season.

As Miller gets closer to the one-year mark in late November, he’ll get closer to shedding a bulkier brace which may be limiting some of his movement capabilities, such as his marquee move of dipping his shoulder and bending around the edge of an offensive lineman. That knee brace plan was the strategy as of at least a few weeks ago. Even with a less bulky knee brace, there may not be enough time in the season for him to become the consistently impactful force he was before his injury last year and generate enough opportunities to get more than six sacks. There will be a time this season when Miller looks more like himself, likely closer to the end of the regular season and just ahead of the postseason. The prediction is merely a matter of realistic expectations with a long-term injury as opposed to saying he’ll never be the same player again.

Dorian Williams eventually finds his way back into the starting lineup

Over the last two games, Tyrel Dodson at outside linebacker has gone relatively well. They’ve kept him in on early downs, subbed him out in passing situations for another safety to allow him the best chance to succeed. Dodson is an above average run defender but flawed in pass coverage, and eventually, I expect some of the stronger offenses the Bills play to put some doubt in their current strategy as more tape gets out there on Dodson and his tendencies. The Bengals began to attack Dodson on their second touchdown drive, though that was before Terrel Bernard had to leave the game with a concussion.

Rookie linebacker Dorian Williams is not as refined at this point in his career, but the argument for his raw talent is clearly in his favor. If the Bills want a better pass coverage option on early downs, they could still employ the substitution strategy but with Williams in the game instead of Dodson. Williams’ athleticism could be a massive boost if teams successfully challenge Dodson in the future the way the Bengals did in a small sample.

Advertisement

The Bills get to 10-7, don’t win the AFC East but sneak into the postseason

In order to get to 10-7, the Bills will need a 5-3 finish against a pretty daunting slate of games. Within their final eight games, they’ve got matchups with the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers and Dolphins, and the Bills will need to win at least two of those to achieve the 10-win mark. However, it might be better to look at the rest of the year in segments. The Bills’ next two games are against the Broncos and Jets, both at home, and both have had their share of struggles this season. Despite the Jets winning the season opener, the Bills should be able to put them away at home.

More importantly, these next two games are vital to helping realize their offensive potential. If the Bills can help their banged-up defense by scoring 24-plus points consistently, it takes pressure off an already-stressed defense that has progressively worsened since their slew of injuries began against the Dolphins. Going two-for-two at home would mean the Bills will need to win three of their final six games to get to 10 victories. Although it will be challenging, they have enough talent to accomplish it and sneak into the postseason as a Wild Card team this year. The AFC East might be a slightly lofty goal, though, as the Dolphins have the Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans and Jets over their next five and have primarily played very well against middling to bad teams. But never say never if the Bills are only a game down, holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, heading into their Week 18 road game in Miami.

 Week 10 Predictions and Projections

Projected Practice Squad Elevation: CB Ja’Marcus Ingram

Projected Inactives: IOL Alec Anderson, OT Germain Ifedi, DT Poona Ford, LB A.J. Klein, CB Christian Benford, S Micah Hyde

Prediction: Bills 27, Broncos 17

The Broncos have played far better as of late and are coming off a bye week so that ups the level of difficulty compared to where they were to begin the year. Their defense has been far more competitive over their last three outings, surrendering fewer than 20 points in each contest — two of which were against the Kansas City Chiefs. Regardless, the Bills have had to look themselves in the mirror this week, and there is a quiet confidence the offense can finally put its inconsistencies away and put together a positive performance. There were hints of it against the Bengals and Buccaneers over the last two games, and the Bills are feverishly trying to isolate what works and better help their offense become a more efficient and unpredictable unit moving forward. This home game against the Broncos is a tremendous opportunity to do just that, and with Denver still yielding a good amount of yards per attempt to the run game, that might be the jolt the Bills could use to take some pressure off their passing game and set up some higher-yielding plays through the air later in the evening. They have the potential to turn it around, and Monday should yield their most sustained opportunities to generate points in a game in over a month. Should Diggs’ injury status reveal that he’s out, I still think the Bills will win, but maybe just in a closer game than with the star receiver.

(Top photo of Dalton Kincaid: Rich Barnes / Getty Images)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57lGlsa25gZnxzfJFsZmppX2Z%2BcK7Un52apJ9ir6q4y6xkpqGUqLKiv86nZKmqlZm2pMDIqKWsZZ6buXA%3D